Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban regime is limited

 

Objectives

1. Domestic security: Pakistan seeks to prevent attacks by the TTP and other militant groups against its security forces and civilians. For example, it has announced a “comprehensive, effective and actionable strategy” to eliminate militant outfits. Arab News+2The Diplomat+2

2. Control of cross-border militancy: One key objective is to stop militants operating from Afghan soil against Pakistan. Pakistan demands that Afghanistan’s Taliban regime act against such groups. The Diplomat+2The Diplomat+2

3. Reliable relationship with Afghanistan: Pakistan historically wanted a friendly or at least cooperate-friendly government in Kabul to serve its strategic interests (such as stability on its western border, trade, pipelines etc.). The Express Tribune+1

4. Reasserting state writ and rule of law: Through initiatives like the National Action Plan (Pakistan) (post-2014) to crack down on terrorism, reform prosecution of terrorism cases. Wikipedia+1

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🔄 Strategy / Tools — how Pakistan is trying to achieve those objectives

1. Military operations and kinetic action

   • Pakistan has carried out large-scale operations in its tribal areas — e.g., Operation Zarb‑e‑Azb in 2014 aimed at removing militants from North Waziristan. Wikipedia+1

   • More recently, Pakistan has shown willingness to carry out cross-border strikes into Afghan territory when it accuses the Afghan side of harbouring TTP militants. The Diplomat

   • Intelligence-led operations, legislation, coordination with provincial governments have been emphasised in the new strategy. Foreign Policy+1

2. Diplomatic and economic pressure

   • Pakistan has used trade and transit restrictions, visa rules, border controls (especially on the Afghanistan side) to pressure the Afghan Taliban regime to act. Dawn

   • Diplomatic messaging: Pakistan signals that its support for the Taliban regime in Kabul is conditional upon cooperation on militant safe-havens. The Express Tribune+1

3. Attempts at negotiation and peace talks

   • Pakistan has opened channels of talks with the TTP in past years (e.g., truce/ceasefire efforts) though with limited success. Wikipedia+1

4. Changing policy orientation

   • From a posture that emphasised engagement and seeking a “friendly” Taliban regime, Pakistan is now apparently shifting toward a more conditional and even punitive stance: i.e., if Afghanistan-based groups attack Pakistan, then Pakistan will respond via force and hold the Afghan regime responsible. The Express Tribune+1

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⚠️ Challenges & contradictions

• The TTP remains a potent threat. One analysis notes that Pakistan’s strategy has “fundamental flaws” because military/tactical responses alone may not address the root causes of militancy. United States Institute of Peace

• Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan Taliban regime is limited: the Taliban in Kabul may not respond as Islamabad hopes, so pressure tactics may work only partially. Dawn

• Pakistan’s historical policy of differentiating “good Taliban vs bad Taliban” (supporting proxies in Afghanistan while fighting internal insurgents) has come back to bite it. India Today+1

• Internal governance, rule of law, provincial coordination remain weak in some border areas, complicating full implementation of counter-terror strategy.

• Cross-border operations raise risks of escalation with Afghanistan, as well as potential civilian casualties and international criticism.